The note, which specifically examines Solaire Resort parent company Bloomberry Resorts ahead of its impending 4Q22 and FY22 results release, instead says the Philippines growth story will continue to be domestic driven this year, with Bloomberry’s GGR tipped to rise only 9% in 2023, improving to 32% growth in 2024.

While players from Greater China accounted for around 35% of Bloomberry’s pre-pandemic GGR, Maybank analyst Miguel Sevidal estimates Chinese visitation to the ASEAN 6 – Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand – will reach just 10.5 million or 36% of 2019 levels this year.

“Real-time data from flight paths suggest a slow recovery, with limited air traffic coming from Guangzhou and Incheon to the Philippines,” Sevidal said.

“December 2022 likewise reflected a slow pick-up in tourist arrivals with Greater China tourists representing only 5% of Dec 2019 levels.

“We echo our regional view that the ‘quality’ of Chinese VIPs may be lower, as evidenced by (i) the decline in Chinese property prices and manufacturing and (ii) the shift in Macau’s VIP-to-mass mix toward mass.

“Our base case of Marginal Recovery reflects a conservative assumption of limited windfall from China’s reopening. This translates to VIP GGR trending at below 60% of pre-pandemic levels through FY25.”

Despite the modest contribution from China, Sedival remains bullish on Bloomberry with the return of Chinese players providing upside risk to the company’s strong domestic growth opportunity.

“Even with this modest [China] assumption, our FY23/24E GGR and earnings growth forecasts for Bloomberry stand at 9%/32% year-on-year and 30%/72% year-on-year, respectively, driven by domestic demand and contributions from Solaire North,” he wrote.