Macau mass GGR hits high in May, June to be softer

Macau’s overall May GGR was nearly MOP20.19 billion (US$2.51 billion), up 8.9 percent on April’s circa MOP18.55 billion, according to official data issued on Saturday. It was the best monthly performance since January 2020, at the very beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, when the city’s GGR stood at MOP22.13 billion.

Last month had the benefit of the so-called May Golden Week, referring to the five days of mainland China’s Labour Day holiday season starting on May 1.

Overall GGR for May was “better than (already elevated) consensus of MOP19.5 billion to MOP20 billion,” said JP Morgan.

It added: “The month also printed the best GGR in 50-plus months and a record high mass GGR in the history of Macau – quite impressive, especially given mounting investor concerns on macro/consumption elsewhere in China.”

Looking ahead, analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li noted that the current month of June was “seasonally the weakest month of the year”. They added that JP Morgan was forecasting for monthly GGR to pull back to MOP18 billion in June, or MOP600 million per day.

Seaport Research Partners said in a separate Sunday memo that May’s GGR stood at 81 percent of the same month in 2019.

“The continued strength in GGR growth remains clear,” analyst Vitaly Umansky said.

However, he cautioned: “Base mass recovery remains subdued… offset partially by strong premium mass.”

According to Seaport Research, base mass GGR in Macau “is still only around 80 percent of 2019 levels.”

Mr Umansky said June should produce GGR of around MOP17.85 billion.

“Weather often plays a role in June results as typhoon season has already begun,” he noted. “Any major weather event in the region could have a negative impact on revenue and visitation during the summer months.”

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc expects June’s GGR to show a sequential per day decline of 9.0 percent.

Managing director Carlo Santarelli forecast that Macau second quarter GGR could reach US$7.07 billion, an increase of 24 percent in year-on-year terms, but still down by 23 percent versus the same period in 2019.