The assessment in summary:

The Gambling Authority estimates that channelization in the Swedish competitive gambling market is 85%.

This is a decrease of 1 percentage point from last year’s estimate of 86%.

Fewer sources have been used for this year’s assessment. H2 Gambling Capital is now excluded and therefore does not contribute to the estimate of 85%. H2GC recently adjusted its estimate for Sweden down from 91% to 72%.

The estimate of 85% should be compared with the state’s channelization target for a long-term sustainable gambling market: at least 90%.

Gambling verticals such as betting and online casino have also been measured individually. They show large differences. Betting, including the popular betting on horse racing in Sweden, is estimated to have a channelization rate of between 92-96%. Online casino is estimated to have a channelization rate of between 72-82%.

Five main reasons are given as motivations for gambling unlicensed, including a better selection of games on the unlicensed gambling market and having disconnected oneself from licensed gambling on Spelpaus.se.

The SGA will present an estimate of the channelization rate on the Swedish gambling market once a year.

BOS Secretary General Gustaf Hoffstedt comments:

“With this assessment, the SGA confirms that Sweden’s major problem in the gambling market is online casino. It is unacceptable that around a quarter of all online casino gambling is leaking out of the licensed market. It is equally unacceptable that this has been accepted by political decision-makers for half a decade, since the channelization has also been low in previous assessments, without effective regulatory measures being taken.

Later this month, gambling investigator Marcus Isgren’s proposal to change the scope of the Gambling Act will be presented. It is a welcome change in the law that will criminalise almost all unlicensed gambling in Sweden. But anyone who understands the gambling market knows that the elephant in the room is that the licensed market is so tightly regulated that it does not appear attractive enough in the eyes of the consumer. Without a review of, for example, the total ban on bonuses and other loyalty programs, next year’s channelization assessment from the SGA will also be a disappointment.”