Sportradar’s cutting-edge AI technology conducted 10,000 comprehensive simulations for each of the 51 matches in the UEFA EURO 2024 tournament. Among these simulations, England emerged as the winner in 2,400 instances, revealing a 24% probability, edging out France and Germany, according to Sportradar’s AI probability model. This suggests Gareth Southgate's team has a significant chance of claiming the championship title.

Leveraging betting insights from its global network of 900 sportsbook operators, Sportradar inputted tens of thousands of data points into its AI-powered algorithm. This facilitated an in-depth analysis of historical data and enabled the anticipation of future scenarios within the framework of this year’s tournament regulations.

In addition, Sportradar’s AI simulations identified France’s Kylian Mbappe as the player most likely to win the Golden Boot. Out of 10,000 simulations, the Frenchman came out as top goal scorer on 1,519 instances. The AI simulation put Mbappe slightly ahead of England’s Harry Kane who was selected 1,477 times.

Fellow Englishmen Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden were identified 453 and 288 times, respectively.

 Additional insights from Sportradar’s UEFA EURO 2024 data simulations:

 ENGLAND LEADS THE PACK FOLLOWED BY FRANCE, GERMANY, PORTUGAL AND SPAIN 

• Of the 10,000 simulations processed by Sportradar, the AI algorithm selected England to win the tournament 2,400 times followed by France - 1,806 times, Germany - 1,518 times, Portugal – 1,047 times and Spain – 927 times.
• At the other end of the spectrum, Scotland was amongst the teams least likely to win the competition. The AI selected Scotland to win the competition much less than 100 times out of 10,000. Meanwhile Romania, Albania, Slovenia, Georgia and Slovakia were identified as tournament winners the fewest times – in the range of one per-mil each.   

 MBAPPE EDGES KANE TO WIN THE GOLDEN BOOT 

• Having scored 44 goals across 48 games in all competitions throughout the 2023 / 24 season, Sportradar identified Kylian Mbappe to win the Golden Boot 1,519 times out of the 10,000 simulations generated. The AI put Mbappe slightly ahead of England’s Harry Kane who was selected 1,477 times. Meanwhile Cristiano Ronaldo, making a record sixth appearance at the European Championships, is also in the mix. The AI simulated for him to win the Golden Boot 635 times out of 10,000.  
• Following a fine debut season in La Liga, the AI selected England’s Jude Bellingham to finish the tournament as Golden Boot winner 453 times out of 10,000. 

 SIX GOALS TO WIN THE GOLDEN BOOT 

• The Golden Boot winner is likely to score 6 goals during the tournament, according to the simulations. Of the 10,000 simulations processed, the AI algorithm indicated a return of six goals would win the Golden Boot on 3,137 occasions, with 5 goals and 7 goals both featuring on 2,801 and 1,916 occasions respectively.