In a weekend note exploring the outlook for Genting Singapore in 2024 and beyond, Maybank analyst Samuel Yin Shao Yang said he expects the company may look to form a joint venture for a Thai IR license based on its previous exploits in Korea and Japan.

“While we acknowledge that Thai IRs are more likely to be a threat to Genting Singapore than to [Resorts World Genting operator] Genting Malaysia, we note from history that Genting Singapore is not averse to expanding overseas to partially stave of competition,” Yin wrote.

“Recall that Genting Singapore tried to expand into Jeju, South Korea until November 2016 and Yokohama, Japan until September 2021 in order to partially stave of competition from them.

“Thus, we do not discount the possibility that Genting Singapore may form a joint venture to bid for a Thai IR license should Thailand liberalize its casino industry.”

In the meantime, Yin said he expects Genting Singapore’s earnings to return to pre-COVID levels in 2024, shrugging off the liability of recent tax increases thanks to the return of Chinese tourists.

“We expect most of the growth in gaming revenue this year to come from Chinese tourists,” he said.

“Even before 3Q23, mass market (which traditionally contributes around 75% of earnings) was already hitting pre-COVID levels despite the lack of Chinese tourists due to new migrants and wealth created by higher property prices. The return of Chinese tourists en masse in 3Q23 drove mass market gross gaming revenue to 8% above the FY19 quarterly average and VIP volume to 36% above the FY19 quarterly average. In fact, the 3Q23 VIP volume of SGD11.3b was the highest since 2Q15.

“We expect this growth to consolidate and continue in FY24 as seat capacity for flights from China to Singapore recovers.

“December 2023 seat capacity from China to Singapore currently stands at 87% of December 2019 levels. Singapore also recently granted 30-days visa free entry to Chinese visitors. Thus, we hope that Chinese visitation to RWS will recover completely this year.

“In the long term, we expect RWS VIP volume and mass market GGR to exceed 2019 levels by around 20%.”

Maybank estimates Genting Singapore’s revenue will reach SG$2.66 billion (US$2.0 billion) in 2024, with Adjusted EBITDA climbing to SG$1.25 billion (US$941 million).