Satellite casino closures could spark financial instability in Macau, according to property assessor

In an interview with Macao Daily News, Liu warned that the worst-case scenario could destabilise financial systems, pushing borrowing ratios to critical levels.

“If there is a lack of a conclusive solution to satellite casinos, it will make property valuation challenging, as factors such as the presence of a casino and variations in management fees play a significant role in determining overall property value,” he explained.

Historically, hotels with satellite casinos attached have been able to secure higher loans from banks.

However, as the property appraiser noted, such loans could dramatically exceed updated valuations following the cessation of satellite casinos, driving the loan-to-value ratio of some properties to as high as 150 per cent.

Macau currently hosts 30 casinos, 11 of which operate on premises separate from the gaming concessionaires they rely on.

Under new casino concessions introduced early in 2023, these establishments have until the end of the year to transition.

Starting next year, satellite operations will no longer charge commissions but will instead operate on a management fee structure.

According to Liu, satellite casinos generated as much as MOP11 billion (US$1.37 billion) in gross gaming revenue last year, contributing approximately MOP4 billion to the public coffers.

Further analysis suggests that these third-party operations involve a workforce of 13,500, including 5,500 individuals employed in surrounding businesses.

These human resources account for 4.6 per cent of Macau’s domestic workforce.

However, the property evaluator clarified that these figures do not include employees of service suppliers.

The loss of gaming revenue was also highlighted as a key challenge linked to the discontinuation of satellite operations.

Once the casino tables deployed at these outposts are returned to their respective gaming concessionaires, their more budget-conscious clients are unlikely to follow.

Satellite casinos have cultivated a clientele of small bettors who are expected to be deterred by higher wagering thresholds, Liu explained.

An estimate based on official property records suggests that total loans linked to satellite casinos and nearby shops amount to approximately HK$25 billion to HK$39 billion.

Data from the Monetary Authority of Macau shows a rising delinquency ratio for commercial property mortgages, with the latest figure at 5.4 – the highest on record.