Macau september casino revenue to ebb to over US$ 2.18 B

Macau casinos generated a combined MOP19.75 billion in gross gaming revenue (GGR) in August – the second-best result since the city dismantled all Covid restrictions early last year.

According to Seaport Research Partners (SRP)’s Vitaly Umansky, the 6.2 per cent month-over-month increase is above the historical average of 1 to 3 per cent.

“August was likely helped by the calendar, with the month having 5 Fridays and Saturdays and 4 Sundays (14 days in total out of 31 days), compared with 12 weekend days in July,” the analyst wrote in a recent report.

According to a note from J.P. Morgan (JPM) analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li, the August performance translated to a daily run-rate of MOP637 million, which was an 81 per cent recovery compared with 2019.

“Based on our estimates, mass GGR recovered to 110-115% of pre-COVID levels (vs 105-110% in the past two months) while VIP remained at around 23-24% (the same trends as in recent quarters),” they wrote.

The summer momentum is predicted to subside in September, which the J.P. Morgan analysts described as a “shoulder season between the summer holiday and the October Golden Week”.

Umansky also wrote that “September is generally the weakest or second weakest month of the year (along with June)”.

“Any major weather events in the region could have a negative impact on revenue and visitation during September, which is often prone to typhoon activity,” he said.

SRP expects the September GGR to be MOP17.775 billion, while JPM believes it will be MOP17.5 billion.

Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank, however, expects a slightly higher result of US$2.243 billion, or MOP18 billion – down 18.8 per cent from the 2019 September level.

“[…] represents a monthly sequential per day contraction of 6.2%, which, we note, compares to the 5.5% average sequential per day decline in September, relative to August, over the period from 2013 through 2019,” Santarelli wrote.