and after the Chinese New Year period, a report by Deutsche Bank analysts points out.

At MOP114 million (US$14.1 million) by the end of 2022, weekly gaming result averages have gradually increased with the removal of pandemic movement restrictions in the region, jumping to MOP263 million by January 9 and to MOP314 million by January 15.

“Looking at the data over the 2013-2019 period, the period following the period which includes CNY, has outperformed by, on average, 65-75 per cent, from a GGR per day perspective,” analysts Carlo Santarelli and Steven Pizella point out.

“In fact, over time, when looking at the soft period, which includes CNY, and the period post CNY, the blended average of the two periods has broadly mirrored the preceding periods, in aggregate”.

The investment bank has also produced estimates for the gaming market segments by 2023, forecasting that the local mass market is expected to recover to about 85 per cent of 2019 levels by next year.

” While this estimate could prove conservative, we want to remain cognizant of the unknown impact stemming from the structural changes in the junket network, and how these changes could impact the premium mass segment,” the dispatch indicates.

“That said, as previously noted, we are estimating the VIP marketto return to roughly 48 per cent of 2019 levels, in 2024”

Therefore, according to Deutsche Bank predictions by 2024, the mass market would amount to US$16.6 billion, more than half of the predicted US$26 billion in gross gaming revenue for that year, with the VIP market left with US$8.1 billion.

Macau’s new gaming law – in force since January 1 of this year – only allows junket operators to provide services to one gaming operator, with most concessionaires expected to shift to a predominant focus on premium mass or directly managed VIP customers.

“We expect VIP margins under the new structure to be higher, though just how much higher will likely boil down to competition amongst the concessionaires for direct VIP customers,” the report notes.

“As such, and while we acknowledge this could be a stretch, mass revenue does not necessarily need to be higher than 2019 levels, for Macau property EBITDA to exceed 2019 levels, should VIP revenue equate to or exceed 50 per cent of 2019 levels”

By Nelson Moura