US Lawmakers Introduce bill to Ban Prediction Markets on Military and Government Actions

U.S. Democratic lawmakers Senator Chris Murphy and Representative Greg Casar have introduced new legislation aimed at banning prediction market bets tied to military operations and other sensitive government actions, escalating regulatory pressure on the rapidly expanding sector.

The proposal, titled the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act, comes amid growing concern in Congress over the legality and ethical implications of prediction markets, particularly following suspiciously timed wagers linked to U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in Iran and operations in Venezuela.

Under the bill, betting would be prohibited on a wide range of high-risk or sensitive events, including government actions, war, terrorism, assassination, and any outcome that could be influenced or known in advance by insiders. The measure specifically aims to curb the use of privileged or non-public information in speculative trading.

Although the path to enactment remains uncertain, the BETS OFF Act is part of a broader wave of legislative efforts on Capitol Hill to rein in prediction markets. Earlier this month, lawmakers introduced the DEATH BETS Act, which seeks to ban contracts involving war, assassination, or death on platforms regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

At the same time, the CFTC is actively working on a regulatory framework for prediction markets, as policymakers weigh how to balance innovation with consumer protection and national security concerns.

The latest proposal underscores increasing bipartisan scrutiny of a sector that has surged in popularity—and controversy—due to its links to real-world geopolitical events and the potential for market manipulation or insider trading.