According to CreditSights under Fitch Group, “flattening trends” are expected in the remainder of 2024 as the ongoing gaming recovery “matures”.

Citing data from the city’s gaming watchdog, the financial researcher says that the gross gaming revenue (GGR) last year recovered to 63 per cent of the 2019 level.

However, the pace of improvement continued into 2024 at lower speed. In the second quarter, 77 per cent of the comparable 2019 level was reached, slightly up from 75 per cent in the preceding quarter.

“We attribute this to the near extinction of junket-promoters which has meaningfully impacted the recovery for VIP GGR,” analyst David Bussey wrote in a recent note.

Macau authorities have decided to allow 50 junket companies to run in 2025, a cap unchanged from this year.

However, as of June this year, only 22 are registered with the city’s gaming watchdog.

Visitation, meanwhile, is also experiencing a slowdown. The year-to-date figure, up until May, is tracking at 82 per cent of the levels observed in 2019. However, from April to May, the visitation reached 79 per cent of the 2019 levels – slightly lower compared to 86 per cent in the first quarter.

VIP-mass dynamics

According to CreditSights analysis, Baccarat games are the largest contributor to GGR, accounting for approximately 85 percent of the total.

In the first quarter of 2024, mass baccarat revenue reached 116 per cent of the 2019 levels, while that of VIP baccarat reached 39 per cent only.

“While the loss of junkets will likely hinder a full recovery to pre-pandemic GGR (at least in near-to-medium term), it has benefited margins,” the analyst wrote.

“For junket-sourced VIP players, casino operators pay a commission to the junkets in addition to covering the operating costs for VIP rooms (labor, utility, etc.). This has historically made mass-market players a higher-margin demographic,” Bussey added.

Even without the absence of the promoters of high-stake rollers, there has been a consistent rebound in spending per visitor, the analysis suggests.

In 2023, GGR per visitor amounted to about USD805 – or about 88 per cent of the 2019 level of US920.

The year-to-date figure, up until May, is tracking at around US841, a 93 percent recovery compared to 2019.