Macau licence renewal could prompt Sands China share sale

“An orderly disposition of the huge chunk of assets would fall within the shadow timing of the Macau re-concession talks scheduled to begin in 2022, or 2023,” Mr. Klein said. “While we believe the overall risk to US owned Macau casino operators that Beijing will target their properties for confiscation is low, it looms as a consideration for the Adelson family interests. The Macau concession contracts do not provide for compensation to casino owners for their assets should their concessions not be renewed.

“For the purposes of the Adelson family, concerned about long term values, dividend flow to itself and its charitable work, it is a prime consideration in a decision on whether to consider selling or staying put.

“There is a case to be made both ways,” Mr. Klein added. “On the one hand, the family interest is vested in a re-institution of dividends and holding onto its equity and control. Yet on the other, we see a scenario post-pandemic that could position the company and its shareholders to fetch a considerable premium for its equity given the current trading range of the stock. A potential buyer can probably value the assets in terms of a projected recovery to 2019 levels in revenue and EBITDA within two years.

“At the same time, the LVS capex commitment made to the Government of Singapore for US$3.3bn on behalf of an expansion of Marina Bay Sands has been temporarily suspended due to the pandemic. LVS has already laid down the first US$1bn toward the project, so the heirs have to seriously consider a sale of the company if a viable buyer shows up offering an attractive premium in the intermediate term. The commitment for the remaining US$2.2bn to Singapore would then fall on a successor owner. We have weighed potential outcomes following the passing of Sheldon Adelson. Though many industry observers thus far have expressed the belief that the family expects to hold its 57 per cent of LVS equity long term, we remain sceptical of that view. There are just far too many positives in the mix for the heirs not to consider selling off equity either in chunks or all at once to an industry buyer for example.”