Macau Gaming Revenue Seen Growing 5–6% in 2026 on Mass Market Strength, JP Morgan Says

JP Morgan analysts anticipate that Macau’s gaming sector will extend its post-pandemic recovery into 2026, supported by solid demand from mass-market players and steady performance from slot machines. While growth is expected to remain below the rebound pace seen in recent quarters, the bank characterizes the outlook as sustainable and structurally healthier than in past cycles.

According to the note authored by DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian, mass and slot gross gaming revenue (GGR) is forecast to increase by 7% to 8% next year. In contrast, VIP revenue is expected to decline by approximately 5%, largely due to a tough comparison base following a stronger-than-anticipated performance in 2025.

Profits to Outpace Revenue Growth

Beyond top-line expansion, JP Morgan expects industry profitability to improve at a slightly faster rate than overall revenue. The analysts project EBITDA growth of 6% to 7% in 2026, marking a shift from 2025, when profit growth lagged behind GGR gains.

“We forecast the industry profit growth (+6–7%) to finally – albeit modestly – outpace top-line growth (+5–6%) in 2026E,” the analysts wrote. This dynamic would help narrow the profit flow-through gap observed last year, signaling better operating leverage for casino operators.

The bank also highlighted improving revenue momentum throughout 2025, noting that each successive quarter exceeded expectations and seasonal averages. The fourth quarter, in particular, delivered Macau’s strongest gaming revenue in six years, reinforcing confidence in the durability of the recovery after a sluggish start to the year.

Strong Finish to 2025 Sets the Base

December played a key role in shaping the outlook. Macau’s GGR for the month climbed 14.8% year-on-year to MOP20.9 billion, reaching around 91% of pre-pandemic levels. While the figure came in slightly below market consensus, JP Morgan attributed this to rising expectations rather than weakening demand.

“The December print was slightly below consensus, but this reflects expectation creep,” the analysts noted, adding that upward revisions in the weeks leading up to the release widened the perceived gap.

For full-year 2025, Macau’s GGR increased 9% to MOP247.4 billion—nearly double JP Morgan’s initial forecast of 5%. That stronger-than-expected performance now serves as the foundation for a more measured, but stable, growth trajectory in 2026, with the mass market firmly positioned as the sector’s main engine.