"They want a transparent process that will protect their investment with appropriate regulation," said Fredric Gushin of Spectrum Gaming Group, which helped Singapore build its casino industry into the world's No. 3, after Macau and Las Vegas. "This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity."

By some estimates, Thailand has the potential to eclipse Singapore's glitzy casinos, in part by luring heavy hitters such as Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS.N), opens new tab, MGM Resorts International (MGM.N), opens new tab and Galaxy Entertainment (0027.HK), opens new tab. None of the companies responded to emails from Reuters seeking comment.

To draw the big names, Thai authorities will have to combat perceptions of favouring big domestic players, adopt an open and competitive development process, and strike a delicate balancing act with domestic punters, two consultants said.

Last month, the cabinet approved a draft law to legalise gambling in so-called entertainment complexes as a way of boosting the economy at a time when GDP is expected to expand less than 2.9% this year, lower than previous estimates.

Reuters has reviewed the latest draft of the legislation, not yet made public, which envisages a new commission to regulate gaming and coordinate with investors in setting up such complexes.

"We estimate Thailand's gross gaming revenue could reach $9.1 billion when fully ramped," Citi said in a research report in November. "This will rank Thailand ahead of Singapore."

Nestled in resorts offering a range of entertainment, Singapore's casinos were part of the city-state's fastest-growing tourist receipts category in 2024.

Thailand's potential as a gaming destination, with casinos proposed in the capital Bangkok, on the holiday island of Phuket, and three other sites, is underpinned by its role as a regional magnet for tourism.

Thailand saw 35.55 million foreign tourist arrive in 2024, up 26.27% on the year, nearing its pre-pandemic record of 39.9 million in 2019 that helped generate 1.91 trillion baht ($56 billion) in revenue.

Experts also see the propensity of Thais to gamble as an attraction for casinos, but household debt levels that are among the highest in Asia, demand robust government safeguards.

Thailand currently allows gambling in state-controlled horse racing, the lottery and betting on some sports, such as boxing.

'TRUE COMPETITION'

The government, led by the populist Pheu Thai party, hopes its plan will attract at least 100 billion baht ($3 billion) in new investment, for an annual boost to foreign arrivals by 5% to 10%, helping to generate revenue of more than 12 billion baht a year.

Thailand's economy, dominated by home-grown billionaire families, has long had a reputation for crony capitalism with a track record of governments seen to back big businesses, a factor of potential concern for investors.

Gushin expected the government to emphasise "true competition" as it seeks requests for proposals (RFP) in coming months. Some well-connected Thai enterprises are already angling for a piece of the action.

"We are interested and ready to put in a bid," retired Colonel Phantat Sangchot, secretary general of the Royal Turf Club of Thailand, which has close ties to the royalist military, told Reuters.

It plans to invest up to $10 billion for resorts that include casinos and horse-racing venues across three cities, he added.

Pasu Liptapanlop, a director of Proud Group, which owns two InterContinental hotels in Thailand, said it was keen to partner with international gaming companies.

"As operators of hotels, we have been hearing this debate about the need to bring in higher value tourism over high volume," he added. "This could be a step in that direction."

Public support for the plan is limited, however, with a January poll showing nearly 60% of 1,310 respondents did not back it.

Against that backdrop, political opposition is also growing.

Palang Pracharat, the pro-military party that ruled Thailand before the 2023 election, said it opposed the initiative for fear it could fuel gambling problems and swell household debt. "This problem will be harmful, like a nasty cancer that destroys our society," party spokesman Piya Tavichai told reporters in February.

Yet the size of Thailand's population suggests domestic punters could still prove a powerful attraction for investors, with Citi estimating that about half of those aged 20 and more could be casino players.

That would far outstrip the 99,000 Singapore citizens and permanent residents, or about 3% of the island nation's adult population, who visited its casinos in 2023.

Adopting strong social safeguards will be a balancing act as potential investors will watch regulations closely, said Daniel Cheng, a gaming consultant based in Singapore.

"If they become too onerous, then less people will participate and the underlying value of the 66 million local population starts to diminish very, very quickly," he said.