The Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) concluded that prediction market services fall within the legal definition of gambling products and require specific licensing to operate in New Zealand. According to DIA Gambling Director Vicki Scott, any operator offering such services to New Zealand residents without approval is in breach of existing gambling legislation and should expect regulatory engagement.

Neither platform has reportedly received formal notification of the ruling to date.

A Structured Monopoly Model Reinforced

New Zealand’s online gambling regime clearly separates wagering and casino activities under distinct legislative frameworks. At the centre of the wagering model is TAB, which holds exclusive rights to provide online sports betting services nationwide.

Daily operations of TAB’s online betting platform are managed by Entain, following the operational agreements finalised with the government. This monopoly arrangement ensures that licensed online sports wagering remains concentrated in a single approved operator, strengthening compliance, consumer protections and regulatory oversight.

Under this framework, any organisation offering online wagering services without proper authorisation is in violation of New Zealand law. While prediction market operators may argue that their products sit outside traditional betting definitions, the DIA has made clear that current legislation classifies these services as gambling activities.

At the same time, Parliament continues to advance the Online Casino Gambling Bill, which proposes auctioning fifteen online casino licences — signalling a forward-looking, structured expansion of the regulated digital gaming market.

Access Remains Open Pending Further Action

Despite the regulatory determination, New Zealand has not yet implemented geoblocking measures. As a result, local users can still access Kalshi and Polymarket, which currently do not list New Zealand among their restricted jurisdictions.

The platforms will remain accessible unless operators voluntarily restrict access or further enforcement steps are taken. The DIA’s ruling, however, sets a clear compliance expectation for offshore providers targeting New Zealand customers.

Australia’s Enforcement Model Offers Regional Context

New Zealand’s decision aligns with similar regulatory interpretations in Australia. The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) recently determined that prediction market platforms constitute gambling under national legislation.

Following its investigation, ACMA prohibited Polymarket from serving Australian customers and instructed internet service providers to restrict access. Documents obtained by Crikey through freedom-of-information requests showed that regulators were able to access and place bets on the platform without encountering geolocation barriers. Records indicated approximately 1.9 million visits from Australia between November 2024 and May 2025.

Although some users may attempt to bypass restrictions using virtual private networks, Australia’s regulatory response demonstrates a growing regional consensus on how prediction markets fit within existing gambling laws.

Strengthening Regulatory Certainty

New Zealand’s ruling sends a clear signal that its gambling framework is not only active but adaptable. By affirming that emerging digital betting models must operate within established licensing structures, authorities are reinforcing market integrity and consumer safeguards.

For licensed stakeholders and prospective entrants, the decision provides increased regulatory certainty — a critical factor as the country prepares for broader reforms under the forthcoming online casino licensing regime.