For years, lotteries have been at the center of controversy—not because of innovation or investment growth, but due to allegations of illegal operations, imitation of gambling activities, tax evasion, and the absence of valid licenses. Against this backdrop, the tender represents a long-awaited attempt to restore state oversight. However, questions remain as to whether this move signals genuine reform or merely stabilizes an existing monopoly.

The open tender attracted only three participants: M.S.L., the Ukrainian National Lottery, and PJSC “Patriot.” These companies are not newcomers but long-standing market players that already dominate the sector. Their participation highlights one of the key concerns surrounding the tender—its restrictive entry conditions.

Among the main requirements for obtaining a lottery license are the presence of branches in cities with populations exceeding 500,000, a network of at least 5,000 points of sale equipped with proprietary terminals, and a tight 29-day deadline for preparing and submitting the full licensing documentation. Taken together, these criteria effectively exclude new domestic entrants and foreign operators, limiting competition and reinforcing the existing market structure.

From a regulatory standpoint, the tender does mark a positive shift. Lottery operators’ licenses expired back in 2013–2014, leaving the sector in a legal gray zone for more than 11 years. During this period, operators functioned without proper oversight and without paying licensing fees or full taxes. The fact that current operators are now required to obtain licenses and operate within a defined legal framework is, in itself, a meaningful step toward normalization.

At the same time, the tender does not constitute a full market reset. No new players have entered the market, and the monopolistic nature of the sector remains intact. Recognizing this, PlayCity has announced a transitional period of up to three years—covering the duration of martial law plus one additional year—for the Ministry of Digital Transformation to update lottery legislation and conduct re-licensing with access for foreign companies.

This transitional framework offers cautious optimism. If implemented effectively, it could lead to more flexible regulatory conditions, increased competition, and greater investment inflows into the Ukrainian lottery market. However, the success of this approach will depend on whether the period is used to develop modern, transparent, and competitive legislation—or whether it simply prolongs the dominance of the current operators.

The licensing tender should therefore be viewed as a first step rather than a final solution. Closing the regulatory gap and formalizing the status of existing lotteries is important, but sustainable development will require systematic and inclusive reform. Active involvement from all stakeholders—the state, lottery operators, and consumers—will be essential.

Only through clear rules, genuine market access, and transparent licensing procedures can Ukraine move toward true liberalization of its lottery sector. Without these changes, the current initiative risks becoming a temporary fix that preserves the status quo, rather than a foundation for long-term growth and fair competition.