Macau’s gaming revenue (GGR) rose unexpectedly in April, according to data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), signaling a potential boost in tourism ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday.

This figure surpassed analyst expectations, which had projected a 1.25% decline, Bloomberg says. Despite the improvement, April’s revenue remains approximately 20% below pre-pandemic levels recorded in 2019.

Tourism played a key role in April’s performance, with Macau welcoming around 520,000 visitors during the Easter holiday, a 28% increase from the previous year. March had already seen strong tourist activity with 3.1 million arrivals – roughly 91% of the city’s pre-pandemic volume – though April’s full data is still pending.

The real test, however, will come during the five-day Labor Day holiday, beginning Thursday, which historically draws a significant influx of mainland Chinese tourists. Analysts anticipate a 1% drop in gaming revenue for May, citing broader economic uncertainties, Bloomberg reports.

JPMorgan analysts, including DS Kim, cited by Bloomberg, noted that while Macau is not directly affected by U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, the city could feel the impact of a slowing Chinese economy and weakening yuan. These second-order effects may dampen consumer spending, including gaming. Meanwhile, stagnant gaming growth is straining casino margins.

The combined profits of Macau’s six major gaming operators are expected to fall by 5% in the first quarter. Reflecting broader concerns, the Bloomberg Intelligence index for Macau casinos dropped 6.5% in April, compared to a 4.3% decline in the Hang Seng Index.