Gaming Industry's Positive Outlook: Optimism and Emerging Risks

Positive outlook for the U.S. gaming industry

Gaming executives report a positive outlook and optimism for future industry conditions as key performance indicators continue to improve. At the same time, emerging risks – particularly from prediction market platforms offering sports event contracts – are increasingly shaping industry concerns, according to the American Gaming Association (AGA) Gaming Industry Outlook.

The GCI shows real economic activity

The Gaming Conditions Index (GCI) shows real economic activity – measured across gaming revenue, employment, wages, executive sentiment, and casino hotel event activity – grew 1.5 percent year-over-year, reflecting sustained confidence and momentum in the industry.

“The legal state- and tribal-regulated gaming industry continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability in a dynamic economic environment,” said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller. “Operators are focused on investing in innovation and delivering world-class entertainment, while also navigating an evolving competitive and regulatory landscape.”

Key Findings Include:

• More than 60 percent of executives expect increased capital investment, higher revenues, and stronger balance sheets over the next six to 12 months.
• Executive sentiment, reflecting optimism, reached its highest level since Q3 2022, with a 21.4 percent net positive outlook across key business indicators.
• 62 percent of executives plan to increase capital investments over the next six to 12 months, while promotional activity is expected to decline for the second consecutive survey.

Emerging Threats

Despite strong fundamentals, prediction markets offering sports event contracts have emerged as a leading concern, with 81 percent of executives identifying them as a “very significant” risk to the regulated gaming industry.

“Illegal sports betting through sports event contracts is increasingly encroaching on legal, state-and tribal-regulated operators,” said Miller. “It’s clear the legal, regulated industry views this is a threat, and will continue to fight back and protect the integrity of our industry.”

Executives also cited several additional evolving risks impacting operations:

• Inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical risk continue to be major factors limiting operations, while federal regulatory concerns increased sharply.
• 54 percent of respondents cite employee wages as the top expense pressure, followed by tax and regulatory policy changes.
• 42 percent pointed to competition from new forms of gaming (up from 25 percent in Q3 2025).

Methodology

The AGA Gaming Industry Outlook is prepared biannually by Oxford Economics. It provides a timely measure of recent industry growth and future expectations based on executive sentiment, gaming activity, and economic indicators. The Q1 2026 survey was conducted between March 23 and April 8, 2026. A total of 26 executives participated, representing senior level AGA member executives from major international and domestic gaming companies, gaming equipment suppliers, and iGaming and sports betting operators.