Las Vegas is partying on, never mind that ´alleged recession´

“Business is actually great,” Jay Snowden, chief executive officer of Penn Entertainment , which operates 43 properties, told attendees at the Global Gaming Expo on Tuesday. “There’s a narrative that it’s going to get bad.”

The trade show, held at the Venetian Expo center from Oct. 10 to 13, typically has a unofficial theme, and this year executive after executive lamented the disconnect between the strength of their business and the weakness of their company’s shares. Many suggested the stock market has overreacted to a likely slowdown.

Vince Sadusky, CEO of slot machine maker International Game Technology Plc, said his company’s margins have been near historical highs and sales have exceeded expectations. IGT shares are down about 37% this year.

“There’s clearly a lot of uncertainty in the global marketplace right now,” Sadusky told guests at an event on the show floor on Oct. 10. “The great thing is we’re achieving our numbers. We have great strength in each of our businesses, and so far we’re not seeing any deterioration in the consumer.” Casinos were among the first businesses to reopen after the pandemic shutdowns. Gamblers came roaring back. Profits and stock prices surged. But this year, the tables have turned. An S&P index of casino stocks is down 33% -- or 10 percentage points more than the overall market.

Markets are forward looking, of course, and there are signs of a slowdown for the industry.

Casino revenue in Nevada, the single largest gambling destination in the world, was flat over the past two months. The action declined in destinations catering to budget-conscious consumers, such as downtown Las Vegas and Laughlin, Nevada. In what may be a sign that rising gas prices are crimping travel, auto traffic to Las Vegas from California fell 7.5% in August.

Nevada’s gambling revenue, often thought of as resilient to downturns, did decline during the 1990, 2001 and 2008 recessions. There are other headwinds. Macau, the industry’s greatest source of growth over the past two decades, lost two-thirds of its revenue after the pandemic led the Chinese government to restrict travel. A big national holiday was a disappointment this month. And the six concessionaires, including Las Vegas Sands Corp., Wynn Resorts Ltd. and MGM Resorts International, are still awaiting word that their licenses will be renewed. Another growth engine, sports betting, is getting reassessed after several boom years. Big operators including Caesars Entertainment Inc. and Wynn have cut back on their marketing as losses piled up.

A survey released Oct. 4 by the American Gaming Association found that industry CEOs anticipate a modest slowdown over the next six months. The casino business in the US this year has been running 15% above 2021 levels, which set a record, according to Casey Clark, a senior vice president of the casino industry trade group.

“We expect macroeconomic factors to have an effect on this massive and continuing growth we’ve seen lately,” he said in an interview. Ray Pineault, CEO of Mohegan Gaming & Entertainment, said his casino properties are still seeing strong results, however.

The company, best known for its Mohegan Sun resort in Connecticut, learned to get by without some costly amenities, such as buffet restaurants and buses to bring patrons from Boston and New York. Online sports betting has introduced new consumers to casinos, Pineault said, giving him hope that the company will weather any slowdown.

“We forecast a soft landing in this alleged recession,” he said in an interview.

Around Las Vegas, signs of continued investment are evident, especially in sports and entertainment. Construction cranes surround the MSG Sphere, a concert venue behind the Venetian, and the land has been cleared for a Formula 1 auto-racing facility nearby. Consumers kept the casinos all along the Strip looking busy, morning and night this week.

Asked what part of his business was soft on a panel Tuesday morning Bally’s Corp. Chairman Soo Kim said “Wall Street.”