The interest is reciprocated by Osaka, which has recently sent out a request for concepts to interested bidders. The contest will pit MGM’s Jim Murren versus LVS’ Chairman Sheldon Adelson.

Of several global gaming operators said to be in the running for an integrated resort license in Osaka, Japan, Morgan Stanley analysts say the leading contender are the U.S.-based MGM Resorts International, with its “Osaka-first strategy” and recent partnership with Japanese financial services group Orix, and the Las Vegas Sands Corp., a leader in the MICE sector which has proven itself with its Marina Bay Sands property in Singapore. The Japan government wants to follow the Singapore model for IRs, adapting that market’s close controls and strict regulations to bring profitability and avoid the negative social repercussions of casinos.

Located in Japan’s Kansai region, Osaka has been identified as a prime site for several reasons: it’s been chosen to host the 2025 World Expo; it’s the only Japanese city that has openly declared its desire to host such a development; and with more than 2 million inhabitants, it’s the third most populous urban area in the country after Tokyo and Yokohama. According to a Japan travel website, Osaka is a “charming, relaxed city best known for its food, fun and nightlife—with some history and culture peeking through.” All are good reasons for operators like LVS, MGM, Melco and others to eye the region for one of Japan’s first three IR complexes.

In recent elections, the prevailing candidates for governor and mayor, Hirofumi Yoshimura and Ichiro Matsui, acknowledged they both are ardent supporters of a plan to develop an IR; in fact, they want to see it open in 2024, before the Expo begins. Last month, the local government got the ball rolling with a request-for-concept phase. “Osaka appears to be on the front foot, well ahead of other major markets,” wrote the Morgan Stanley team.

Building and opening a massive IR in less than four years may be a daunting task: the multibillion-dollar property would require more than 3,000 hotel rooms and a conference center for more than 6,000 guests. The chosen developer would also have to throw in US$181 million (MOP1.4 billion) to extend public transit to Yumeshima Island where the property would be located, the Macau News Agency reported.

License proposals are due May 24.

If MGM and LVS are the frontrunners, they’re certainly not alone. Gaming operators Galaxy Entertainment Group, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, Wynn Resorts and Genting are also said to be interested. “Osaka likely won’t confirm the winner until late 2019 to mid-2020,” the brokerage team stated, “but details could drive stocks.” Morgan Stanley has indicated the Japanese casino market could be worth US$15 billion per year by 2025.