Macau’s casino industry closed 2025 on a solid footing, delivering steady annual growth despite a softer-than-expected performance in December, as mass-market gaming continued to act as the primary driver of recovery, according to brokerage analysts.

Gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached MOP20.9 billion (US$2.6 billion) in December, representing a 15 percent year-on-year increase and approximately 91 percent of pre-pandemic levels. While the figure fell short of market expectations, analysts emphasized that the shortfall reflected elevated forecasts rather than any deterioration in underlying demand.

“The December print was slightly below consensus, but this reflects expectation creep,” analysts at J.P. Morgan noted, pointing out that estimates had been revised upward in the weeks leading up to the release.

Mass Market Strength Drives Full-Year Growth

For the full year, Macau’s GGR climbed 9 percent to MOP247.4 billion—nearly double earlier projections—confirming a sustained recovery trend after a relatively slow start to 2025.

“Each subsequent quarter beat both expectations and seasonality,” J.P. Morgan analysts said, highlighting that the fourth quarter delivered the strongest quarterly revenue performance in six years.

Fourth-quarter GGR rose 15 percent year-on-year and 6 percent quarter-on-quarter to MOP66.1 billion, supported by strength across both mass-market and VIP segments. Mass-market revenue increased by approximately 13 to 14 percent, reaching record levels above those seen prior to the pandemic, while VIP revenue surged by around 30 percent year-on-year, albeit from a comparatively low base.

“Both segments performed strongly to beat expectations,” the analysts said, while stressing that mass-market gaming remains the key structural pillar of Macau’s recovery.

2026 Outlook: Moderate Growth, Improving Margins

Looking ahead, J.P. Morgan forecasts Macau’s casino revenue to grow by approximately 5 to 6 percent in 2026, driven by continued expansion in mass-market and slot gaming. VIP revenue, however, is expected to soften as the market continues to rebalance.

“Even with likely moderating GGR, we see profit momentum sustaining, if not accelerating, in 2026,” the analysts said, citing gradually recovering industry margins as a key factor supporting profitability.

Despite the positive operational outlook, Macau-listed casino stocks posted average gains of only about 15 percent in 2025, underperforming broader regional equity benchmarks. Analysts attributed this gap to weaker profit flow-through relative to top-line revenue growth, a dynamic they expect to improve as margins normalize.