Fitch predicts gaming revenue decline in 2023 for Las Vegas Strip casinos

Following last month’s Global Gaming Expo, Fitch issued an analysis predicting gaming markets across the U.S. would experience revenue declines between 5 to 15 percent in 2023.

The investor advisory service said it expected gaming markets that quickly exceeded pre-pandemic annual revenue totals from 2019, such as the Strip, would see declines on the higher end of the scale.

“This outlook, coupled with challenging capital markets access and a potential recession in the U.S., were key themes highlighted by many financial service-related panelists,” Fitch gaming analyst Colin Mansfield wrote in an Oct. 21 research note after attending several of the G2E educational sessions.

Gaming industry operators, he wrote, expressed that few material cracks have formed in casino revenue figures, “despite inflationary pressures.”

Last week, the Nevada Gaming Control Board said Strip casinos have collected $6.1 billion in revenue through September. The figure is 22.7 percent ahead of revenue collected through the first nine months of 2021, a year that saw a record $7.07 billion in gaming revenue.

Strip gaming revenue in 2020 – which included a 78-day shutdown of casinos and health and safety operating restrictions – fell to $3.73 billion, the lowest annual total since 1996. In 2019, Strip casinos collected almost $6.6 billion in gaming revenue. Fitch analysts in 2020 wrongly predicted the Strip would experience a slower pandemic recovery than regional gaming jurisdictions. It would be well into 2024, analysts said at the time, before the nation’s largest casino market would see pre-pandemic revenue figures.

Mansfield noted the large crowds at G2E, which organizers said was an estimated 25,000, nearly double the attendance of last year’s scaled-down version of the tradeshow and conference.

Last week, the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority said September had the highest-ever average daily hotel rates of $187 a night. Fitch believes economic headwinds will lead to a reduction in leisure travel, but an expected boost in the Las Vegas convention business “will help offset” a slowdown in other visitation categories.

“The normalization of convention attendance positions the city well to absorb an anticipated pullback in the current, strong leisure demand,” Mansfield said.

Even if gaming revenue tails off in 2023, Mansfield believes operators “are in good shape to weather a pullback,” citing “lower balance sheet leverage, good free cash flow, higher margins” and maturity debts that were extended due to capital market access during the pandemic.

"Mergers and acquisitions for major casino operators are also on track to be the lowest since 2014,” Mansfield said. Currently, the largest deal pending in Nevada is Hard Rock Entertainment’s $1 billion acquisition of The Mirage.