JP Morgan: Better mix, lower OPEX to see Macau operators exceed pre-COVID profit levels by 2025
Wednesday 15 de March 2023 / 12:00
2 minutos de lectura
(Macau).- Macau’s casino industry is poised to equal pre-COVID EBITDA numbers by 2024, and exceed them in 2025, thanks to better gaming mix and lower operating costs, according to JP Morgan.
In a Tuesday note which saw the investment bank update its Macau models to reflect 4Q22 and FY22 earnings results, analysts DS Kim and Mufan Shi highlighted the improved profit profile of the SAR’s gaming industry following the collapse of junkets and lingering after-effects of COVID.
In-particular they point to considerable OPEX savings, with current OPEX estimated to be running at 70% to 75% of 2019 levels – likely rising to between 85% and 90% as operations ramp back up.
While “10%+ savings here may not seem huge on the surface, this is actually very meaningful on a same-store basis if we consider the industry’s capacity [will be] 20%+ higher in 2024 versus 2019 based on number of casino hotel rooms,” the analysts write.
“This gives us confidence to forecast EBITDA to recover to about 100% [of 2019 levels] in 2024 and 110% in 2025, without any profit contribution from VIP. This puts us well ahead of consensus by 10%+, but we feel the risk to our numbers is actually on the upside given a possibility of direct VIP recovery and what we view as under-appreciated potential in non-gaming.”
JP Morgan also updated its models for Macau-wide GGR, which is estimated to reach 50% of pre-COVID levels this year and climb to 75% in 2025. The improvement is driven by mass GGR, which is tipped to reach 90% of 2019 levels by 4Q23, however the analysts note that GGR alone is no longer seen as the key metric in analyzing Macau’s numbers “given vastly different product mix and profit profile.”.
Categoría:Gaming
Tags: Sin tags
País: Macao
Región: Asia
Event
iGaming Club Conference Cancun
24 de November 2025
Levon Nikoghosyan Confirms iGaming Cancun’s Success and Future LATAM Expansion
(Cancun, SoloAzar Exclusive).- The vibrant energy of iGaming Cancun has set the tone for a new chapter in the Latin American iGaming industry. Levon Nikoghosyan, CEO and Co-Founder of AffPapa and iGaming Club, shared his enthusiasm for the event’s debut in Mexico, highlighting its impact on the regional market and the company’s ambitious plans for the future.
Thursday 04 Dec 2025 / 12:00
iGaming Club Cancún 2025 Concludes Successfully with Strong Connections in Its First LatAm Edition
(Cancun, SoloAzar Exclusive).- iGaming Club Cancún 2025 came to a close last night with a comprehensive experience of conferences, networking, and the AffPapa iGaming Awards LATAM gala, consolidating itself as a unique space for operators, affiliates, and providers in the region.
Thursday 27 Nov 2025 / 12:00
iGaming Club Cancún 2025: Affiliates, Operators, and Innovation Take Center Stage on Final Day
(Cancun, SoloAzar Exclusive).- The second and final day of iGaming Club Cancún 2025 unfolds today, bringing together operators, affiliates, and select B2B providers in a unique networking and conference environment that highlights the evolving dynamics of the Latin American iGaming market.
Wednesday 26 Nov 2025 / 12:00
SUSCRIBIRSE
Para suscribirse a nuestro newsletter, complete sus datos
Reciba todo el contenido más reciente en su correo electrónico varias veces al mes.