Macau GGR to surge by 12 pct in Q3, recovery driven by premium customers – Morgan Stanley

The report highlighted the pivotal role played by premium customers in driving the recovery of Macau’s gaming sector, citing trends observed in luxury sales across the country.

The top 1 per cent of mainland Chinese individuals are continuing to travel and spend on entertainment, it stressed.

High-end customers are “spending as much as or even more than pre-Covid levels”, analysts Praveen K. Choudhary and Gareth Leung noted in the report.

The brokerage stated that visitation and revenue figures for July and August remained strong, with no visible signs of slowdown, as leisure demand during the summer holidays contributed to this positive trend.

While most hotel rooms are already booked for August and September, the analysts mentioned that it was still too early to forecast bookings for the National Day Golden Week in October.

During the second quarter, the majority of hotel rooms in Macau’s casino resorts were operational. This suggests that the remaining quarters of the year will experience less incremental growth in operating expenses, resulting in strong operating leverage across the board.

For the third quarter, Morgan Stanley predicts a 12 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase in Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) and a 17 per cent increase in gaming operators’ EBITDA.

Except for MGM, the EBITDA of all gaming operators is projected to reach around 80 per cent of 2019 levels in the third quarter, with MGM’s likely to hit 120 per cent of its 2019 levels.

Despite having 15 per cent more hotel rooms compared to 2019, the total number of employees is projected to remain 5-10 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.

According to Morgan Stanley analysts, the footfall on casino floors has witnessed a busier period compared to June, with minimum bets showing resilience and a tendency to return to pre-Covid levels.

While casino junkets are gradually making a comeback, the recovery in this sector may persist at a slower pace.

The revival is believed to have been hindered by factors such as lower profitability due to the ban on revenue sharing, the use of sub-agents, and operators exercising caution in resuming junket businesses.

By Therese Tu