Speaking during TMC 360 on Tuesday (24/02), André Gelfi, board member and one of the founders of the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR), stated that the measure—introduced within the anti-organized crime bill—still requires deeper technical analysis.

According to him, the proposal establishes a 15% contribution directly on the amount deposited by bettors on regulated platforms. In practice, a R$ 100 deposit would leave only R$ 85 available for betting.

Risk of migration to the illegal market

Gelfi warned that the measure could produce the opposite effect intended by the Government and Congress. By increasing the cost of betting within the regulated environment, the new tax could encourage users to migrate to unlicensed websites that operate outside national rules and do not apply the charge.

Currently, the illegal market already accounts for approximately 50% of betting activity in Brazil, with an estimated annual tax revenue loss of around R$10 billion. In this context, the study emphasizes that any initiative reducing the attractiveness of the formal market could undermine the progress achieved through recent regulation.

The analysis reinforces that strengthening the regulated environment is strategic not only to increase tax revenue, but also to combat organized crime and consolidate responsible gaming standards.

Revenue projections under question

Another issue raised in the report concerns the revenue expectations associated with the new contribution. The R$30 billion estimate projected in the Senate is considered inconsistent with the current size of the formal market.

According to the data presented, the volume handled by bettors in the regulated environment is around R$37 billion. After applying existing taxes, the taxable base would be significantly lower, calling into question the feasibility of such projections.

Security and trust in the regulated environment

Amid the tax debate and the strong presence of illegal operators, the expert stressed the importance of guiding consumers to use only authorized platforms. The official ".bet.br" domain is highlighted as an indicator that the operator complies with Brazilian regulatory requirements, ensures prize payments, and adopts player protection mechanisms.

The full study will be officially submitted to the Presidency of the Chamber of Deputies in Brasília, contributing to the technical debate on the future of taxation in the sector. According to industry representatives, the current moment calls for regulatory balance, predictability, and measures that consolidate the formal market as a pillar of revenue generation, integrity, and responsible gaming in Brazil.