Macau GGR Slips 14% in Early February as Pre-CNY Seasonal Slowdown Sets In

The figure represents a 14% decline compared to January’s daily run rate and is also 11% lower than the MOP$705 million (US$87.6 million) per day recorded in February 2025, underscoring the seasonal moderation in gaming volumes ahead of the holiday period.

Seasonal Factors Weigh on Early-February Performance

In a research note, Citi analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau explained that the softer performance is consistent with historical pre-CNY trends, when visitation and betting activity typically slow before rebounding during the holiday itself.

According to industry sources cited by the bank, VIP gaming volumes since the beginning of February are down between 12% and 14% compared to January, while mass-market GGR has declined by an estimated 11% to 13%. Gaming hold rates, however, are reported to be within normal ranges, suggesting the downturn is volume-driven rather than operational.

February Outlook Remains Intact

Despite the weaker start to the month, Citibank has reiterated its full-month February GGR forecast of MOP$20.5 billion (US$2.55 billion), which would represent a 4% year-on-year increase. To achieve this level, Macau’s casinos would need to generate an average of approximately MOP$775 million (US$96.3 million) per day for the remainder of the month.

The bank has also left unchanged its combined January–February GGR forecast of MOP$43.1 billion (US$5.35 billion), a metric designed to neutralize the shifting timing of Chinese New Year. This would imply a robust 13.5% year-on-year growth across the two-month period.

Macau posted GGR of MOP$22.6 billion (US$2.81 billion) in January, marking a strong 24.0% increase compared to the same month last year.

Optimism Builds Ahead of Chinese New Year

Industry commentary continues to point toward a strong CNY performance for Macau’s concessionaires. MGM China, in particular, highlighted solid booking trends during its most recent earnings call, reinforcing expectations of a sharp rebound in gaming activity during the holiday peak.

While early February reflects a predictable pause, analysts and operators alike remain confident that Chinese New Year demand will provide meaningful upside for the month and support continued recovery in Macau’s gaming sector.