Positive Outlook from Gaming Executives

AGA member executives expect increased customer activity, higher revenues, and stronger balance sheets over the next 6–12 months. Both near- and long-term business outlooks have strengthened, reflecting optimism about the industry’s future growth.

Despite this confidence, the broader economy remains vulnerable to unexpected events. Slower hiring, cautious business investment, and conservative consumer behavior have moderated overall economic growth compared to last year. However, signs of rising confidence in future conditions are emerging.

Gaming Industry Outlook: Key Highlights

The Gaming Industry Outlook offers insights into the current and projected economic health of the gaming sector, using executive sentiment, gaming activity, and other economic indicators. Key findings include:

Gaming Conditions Index (GCI) Growth: The GCI shows that real economic activity in the industry increased in Q3 2025 compared to the prior year. The Index tracks gaming revenue, employment, employee wages, executive sentiment, and casino hotel event activity.

Executive Sentiment Rebound: For the first time since Q1 2024, gaming executives reported a net positive outlook, with more expecting increases than decreases across business performance, revenue growth, and customer activity.

Mixed Economic Forecast: Despite a softening labor market, growth in real disposable income and consumer spending is projected to remain above inflation, supporting both the gaming industry and the broader economy.

Gaming Conditions Index (GCI) Insights

The GCI tracks real economic activity using metrics such as gaming revenue, employment, wages, executive sentiment, and casino hotel events. In Q3 2025:

Real economic activity increased by 3.1% year-over-year, reversing the slight contraction seen in the previous two quarters.

Growth was primarily driven by improved executive sentiment and normalized readings across other indicators.

Industry wage growth stabilized, removing a headwind present in Q1 2025 and further supporting the Index’s improvement.

Executive Sentiment Details

Gaming executive sentiment rebounded to 7.1% net positive in Q3 2025—the first positive reading since Q1 2024 and the highest since late 2022. Executives reported improvements across business outlook, revenue growth, and customer activity, with sentiment particularly strong around revenue growth, customer activity, and overall business situation..

Economic Outlook

The U.S. economy is expected to slow in the second half of 2025 due to tariffs and policy uncertainty but is projected to avoid a recession. Oxford Economics forecasts soft labor markets and pressure on lower-income households, while real disposable income and spending on services are expected to grow above inflation (Q3 2025: 1.5% income growth, 1.6% spending growth; Q3 2026: 2.2% income, 2.1% spending). Household wealth, after recent gains (5.2% in Q3 2025), is expected to remain stable, with slight inflation-adjusted declines (-1.3% in Q3 2026).

Gaming Executive Panel Highlights

Near-term outlook: Improved to 11% net positive in Q3 2025, up from -18% in Q1 2025.

6–12 month outlook: Even more optimistic, with 26% net positive, the highest since Q3 2022. This is largely driven by expected increases in revenue growth (54% positive) and balance sheet health (39% positive), along with reduced concern over inflation and interest rates (43% in Q3 vs. 68% in Q1).

Capital Investment: Expected to remain steady, with 32% of executives planning to increase investment, mainly in casino floor and food & beverage improvements. Supplier investment expectations remain neutral, with a decrease anticipated in gaming unit sales for replacement (29% negative) and expansion (57% negative).

Employment & Wages: 50% of executives cited employee benefits and 46% cited wages as top expense pressures. As a result, 36% expect fewer hires, and 21% anticipate slower wage growth.

Regulatory Concerns: Half of executives reported state regulations as a significant operational challenge, citing gaming taxes, unlicensed operators, and slow iGaming regulation.

Additional Executive Observations:

Political & Regulatory: “Unregulated gaming expansion,” “Slow iGaming regulation,” “Tariffs impacting international sentiment.”

Financial: “Detailed balance sheet reviews,” “Increased product costs due to tariffs.”

Technology: “Cybersecurity improvements,” “Leveraging AI for efficiency.”